The last article of year 2011

Dear All,

This is my last article for 2011. Hope you have enjoyed my articles during the year. 2011 is a very difficult one for everyone. The first half of 2012 may be worse. There is just so many baggage from the past yet to be cleared out. The past cannot be covered up anymore.

I'm in Zhejiang now, talking to bankers about unique credit risks here associated with businessmen gambling in Macau. Bankers literally try to take away their borrowers' pass for entering Macau. But, somehow, they manage to get into without the pass. This is such a big deal that threatens the health of China's economy. Macau threatens China's stability.

High interest loans are a bigger destabilizing force yet. Its fall impact is yet to be felt. So many still count on land price coming back to save them. The land bubble here is gigantic, all based on the assumption of land shortage. There is no land shortage in China. The land price surge is just a debt bubble. The land price can easily go down over 70%.

Another assumption is that the government won't let the land market go down like that. But, the monetary expansion required to support the bubble will lead to hyperinflation and currency devaluation. Chinese government isn't bigger than the market.

It all feels like the big storm is about to come down on us soon. What we have seen is merely drizzle.

Wish everyone Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Andy





2012: the BRIC bubble bursts


Andy Xie, December 20, 2011



Summary

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The world has become more volatile in the months ahead of 2012. The odds are that the world will experience explosive volatility in the first half of 2012. Two forces will drive volatility. First, the global financial crisis of 2008 has become political crisis in the west. The political instability will escalate amidst general elections in Europe and the US. Second the debt bubble in the emerging economies is bursting as hot money flows back into the US.

The emerging market growth, partly due to the credit bubble, kept the global economy afloat in the past three years. As the bubble bursts, the global economy is likely to go into recession again. That will force the Fed and ECB to expand QE to stabilize their economies. The global financial markets may cheer up in the second half of 2012. But, that would be just a bounce, not the beginning of a new trend.

The health of the global economy depends on major countries to undertake serious political reforms. If the necessary reforms are not undertaken, more QE just leads to higher inflation down the road. Even if the reforms take place, it will take years to change the economic trend. Stagflation remains the dominant trend for the global economy.

The economic improvement since 2008 is largely a mirage, fueled by unsustainable government assistance in the west and bubbles in the emerging economies. Both will unwind in 2012. The mirage will be unmasked. If you think 2008 was bad, fasten your seatbelt for 2012. The world may not end. Your wallet might.



From financial crisis to political crisis

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The global financial crisis ('GFC') of 2008 was quickly followed by an economic crisis. To stop the economic collapse, major economies bailed out failing financial institutions and companies and launched massive monetary and fiscal stimulus. The hope was that the stimulus would jumpstart another growth cycle that would cover the cost of bailouts and stimulus.

It is apparent by now that the stimulus generated only temporary and anemic growth. The high cost of stimulus has led to fiscal crisis in most western economies. In the eurozone it has become sovereign debt crisis as the bond market doubts the solvency of several major economies. The difficult politics of cutting fiscal deficit is leading several countries into political crisis.

In the US, the Congress and the Whitehouse battle constantly over the budget. The government is constantly threatened by shutdown. The recent compromises only provide finance for the government on a very temporary basis. As the presidential elections draws closer, the political fighting would become fiercer, increasing the probability of a government shutdown that would create a big economic shock.

In the fiscal year that ended at the end of September 2011the US's fiscal deficit was $1.3 trillion that was equal to 8.6% of GDP, 36% of the total expenditure, and 57% of the fiscal revenue. The US has never been under so much pressure before. In the past, it mostly counted on growth to solve its deficit problem, mainly by capping expenditure and waiting for revenue to catch up. The US's growth potential seems significantly lower than before. The level of the fiscal deficit is unprecedented. The US cannot count on growth to solve its fiscal problem and must embrace serious austerity.

The politics of cutting the deficit is explosive. The Democrats and Republicans virtually have no commonality in how to solve the deficit. The Republicans refuse to consider raising taxes. The Democrats don't want to touch welfare programs like medicare and social security. Their positions mean that there is no political solution likely. As the presidential election draws nearer, the politics could become explosive. In particular, street protests may shock the political system. Of course, some outside force like street protests is probably necessary for the two party system to function again. The process will be highly volatile. Financial markets may suffer.

The US presidential election in 2012 may turn out to be as tumultuous as the one in 1968. The Democrats will likely campaign for fairness, while the Republicans for shrinking the government. The political positions of major interest groups are irreconcilable. Violence may mar the US. While the US economy seems holding up for now, a confidence crisis over the political fighting could set the economy back again.

The eurozone debt politics is more complicated and urgent. The US's Fed keeps the treasury yield low, giving the US government time to solve its deficit problem. The ECB isn't playing that role. Hence, the indebted countries like Italy and Spain are at mercy of the bond market. When the market is jittery, they just won't have the money to run their governments. Hence, bond market turmoils quickly become political crisis. While the new governments of Italy and Spain are serious about austerity, the bond market is unlikely to be convinced. Negative expectation is self-fulfilling in the current environment. Unless the ECB changes its position, the market is unlikely to change its mind, regardless of how aggressive Italy and Spain are in their austerity.

European elite seem to be consolidating behind Germany to save the euro through austerity. Selling the solution to their peoples may turn out not as easy. The drop in living standard could be over one fifth in Southern European countries. It is hard to imagine that such a big cut in living standard could be accomplished without social violence. The austerity is likely to generate political crisis in Italy and Spain. The magnitude of reduction in living standard in these countries and the high unemployment resulting from the poor economy could lead to violent street protests, which would make the bond market more negative. The eurozone is likely to be locked in this vicious cycle in the first half of 2012.

 

The BRIC bubble bursts

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When the western debt bubble burst in 2008, their governments released huge amounts of money through central bank printing money and deficit spending. Because their financial systems were in trouble, the money flowed to emerging economies, triggering massive debt growth in emerging economies. In particular, the hot money flowed into the BRIC countries. China's broad money has risen by 80%, and India's 60% in the past three years. Outside of the monetary system, credit instruments have proliferated in the emerging economies.

The BRIC economies may experience serious economic difficulties next year. Some may experience old fashioned currency crisis. Three forces are bursting the hot money bubble in the BRIC countries. First, the dollar is on the rise. The Washington gridlock is limiting the US fiscal expansion. The dollar is rising as a result. Second, the overextended European banks are shrinking by trillions of euros. This force is swallowing up massive amount of liquidity. The ECB is yet to increase liquidity sufficiently to offset it. Third, China's property bubble is bursting. It is bringing down commodity prices that have been supporting growth in emerging economies.

Brazil and India could experience significant currency depreciation. If not handled properly, for example, propping up their currencies with their limited forex reserves, they could experience full-blown currency crisis, as soon as their forex reserves are exhausted. Despite favorable terms of trade, Brazil and India have run substantial current account deficits, because their monetary condition was excessively stimulative of domestic consumption. Still they have amassed significant forex reserves thanks to hot money inflows more than enough to financing their current account deficits.

India runs a trade deficit of about $10 bn per month or 7-8% of GDP. The deficit is financed by service exports to the west, overseas income of Indian labor, and hot money inflow. All three financing sources are drying up. The west isn't in a position to buy Indian services like before. India's labor income is threatened by the turmoils in the Middle East. And, of course, hot money is reversing. India's foreign exchange reserves of about $300 bn could be exhausted quickly to fund hot money outflow. The stock of hot money in India is probably twice as much as its forex reserves. When the run on the rupee begins, India's reserves could be exhausted in days. India's best defense is to let the currency go, rather than defending it, as Indonesia did during the Asian Financial Crisis. India's forex reserves relative to GDP are about the same as Indonesia's before the Asian Financial Crisis.

Russia has been kept afloat by its energy exports. The Putin prosperity is due to the global energy boom. Russia's industries have declined. If the energy boom ends, Putin's Russia won't have the money to buy the loyalty of the population in its vast hinterland. Among all the commodities energy has the best fundamentals. Russia could be lucky again. However, the global recession could bring down energy prices, even temporarily. Russia doesn't have a big cushion in its model for social peace.

China's forex reserves are ten times India's. Its capital account is not open. Hence, hot money outflow is unlikely to overwhelm China's currency. But, China's vast property bubble is bursting. The bubble has exaggerated China's growth and grossly distorted the money allocation. The normalization will be protracted, possibly lasting through 2014. The rebalancing may cut the real economic growth rate by half. Also, the bubble supported the vast gray income, possibly 10% of GDP. As the bubble bursts, the burden is impossible for the real economy to support. If history gives any guidance, China is about to launch a vast anti-corruption campaign as a necessary component of the normalization to ease the burden on the economy.



More QE

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The Fed shifted its asset purchases to long dated treasuries in September to increase the power of its quantitative easing. It wasn't a full blown QE 3, more like QE 2.5. The US economy has been stabilizing in the recent months, generating jobs roughly in line with labor force growth, i.e., the unemployment situation isn't deteriorating. But, this is fragile stability. The US's housing crisis isn't over. One fourth of homeowners with mortgages, roughly one tenth of the nation's properties, have negative equity, which threatens the economy with more foreclosures. Cutting fiscal deficit could weaken demand. More immediately, the global environment threatens.

The US is quite dependent on exports to Europe. The eurozone is in a credit crunch, like East Asia in 1998 and the US in 2008. It would lead to a big recession, possibly 3-5% contraction in the eurozone GDP. The US export may fall sharply due to that.

Emerging economies have supported the global economy in the past three years. The exports of developed economies like the US have benefited. The profits of the global companies have become dependent on the emerging market boom. That has supported employment and financial markets in the developed economies. As the emerging economies weaken sharply in 2012, that important support is gone. The double negative shock from eurozone and emerging economies could send the US economy into tailspin again. The impact may become apparent by the second quarter of 2012. That may convince the Fed to pursue QE 3.

The only way out for the eurozone is for the ECB to be like the Fed, i.e., holding down bond yields for countries like Italy and Spain. It isn't doing so because Germany opposes. Unless Germany changes its mind, the crisis will keep deteriorating. That may occur when German people see the crisis coming to them. So far they think it's someone else's problem. Germany completely depends on exports. The eurozone recession and the sharp slowdown in the emerging economies will likely send Germany into recession too. The German stock market seems to predict it. When German companies have to lay to workers, Germany people may change their mind.

The ECB, with Germany's blessing, may provide credible support to troubled sovereign debt markets. I suspect that it would need to put €1 trillion on the line to achieve the desired effect.

 

Stagflation ahead

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The ECB and Fed may pursue more QE in the second half of 2012. That will be too late to stop the burstin of the hot money bubble in the emerging economies and the severe recession in Europe. If they do so now, the European banks don't have to contract so fast, and the hot money may stay in emerging economies. But, central bankers don't look forward this way. They check the current statistics and make their decisions.

More QE may bring temporary relief to financial markets. But they won't restore economic growth on their own. The global economy suffers from structural problems cumulated over the past two decades. Reforming is a long and arduous process. Reviving growth is just not possible. QE only leads to stagflation.

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Posted in: BRIC

Shattered illusions

Andy Xie forecasts escalating volatility in the global economy next year as the West begins to pay for its past excesses and the emerging economies, led by the BRICS, try to pick up the pieces after the credit bubble bursts


Andy Xie
December 14, 2011


Next year may be the most volatile year in two decades. A political crisis may engulf major countries in transition. The financial crisis that began in the United States and is now raging in Europe could take down some major emerging economies that have been relatively stable.

The BRIC economies may experience serious difficulties next year. Some may suffer an old-fashioned currency crisis. The major central banks in the developed economies loosened monetary and fiscal policies to cope with the financial crisis in 2008. A significant chunk of the money has flowed to emerging economies, especially the BRIC countries. The hot money has sustained their growth so far. Unfortunately, the growth is mostly an old-fashioned credit bubble.

Three forces are bursting the hot-money bubble in the BRIC countries. First, the dollar is on the rise. The Washington gridlock is limiting US fiscal expansion, and the dollar is rising as a result. Second, the overextended European banks are shrinking by trillions of euros and swallowing up massive amounts of liquidity. The European Central Bank has yet to increase liquidity sufficiently to offset it. Third, China's property bubble is bursting, bringing down commodity prices that have been supporting growth in emerging economies.

If the ECB and the US Federal Reserve launch substantial quantitative easing soon, the hot-money bubble in the BRIC countries could be restored. But, I suspect that it would come too late and the amount would be insufficient. Next year may turn out to be when the BRIC bubble finally bursts. BRIC is one word that launched a thousand hedge funds and a gigantic hot-money bubble. Only the dotcom craze a decade ago had the same impact.

Brazil and India could experience significant currency depreciation. If handled badly - for example, by propping up their currencies with their limited foreign exchange reserves - they could experience a full-blown currency crisis as soon as their foreign exchange reserves are exhausted. Despite favourable terms of trade, Brazil and India have run substantial current-account deficits. Nevertheless, they have amassed significant foreign exchange reserves, thanks to hot-money inflows.

India runs a trade deficit of about US$10billion per month, or 7-8per cent of gross domestic product. The deficit is financed by service exports to the West, overseas income of Indian labour and hot-money inflows. All three financing sources are drying up: the West isn't in a position to buy Indian services like before; India's labour income is threatened by the turmoil in the Middle East; and, of course, the flow of hot money is reversing. India's foreign exchange reserves of about US$300billion could be exhausted quickly to fund hot-money outflow; the stock of hot money in India is probably twice as much as its foreign exchange reserves. When the run on the rupee begins, India's reserves could be exhausted in days.

India's best defence is to let the currency go, rather than defending it, as Indonesia did during the Asian financial crisis. India's foreign exchange reserves relative to GDP are about the same as Indonesia's before the 1997 crisis.

Despite its declining industries, Russia has been kept afloat by its energy exports. The Putin-era prosperity is due to the global energy boom. If the boom ends, Vladimir Putin's Russia won't have the money to buy the loyalty of the population in its vast hinterland. Among all the commodities, energy has the best fundamentals. Russia could be lucky again. However, the global recession could bring down energy prices, even temporarily. Russia doesn't have a big cushion in its model for social peace.

China's foreign exchange reserves are 10 times those of India. Its capital account is not open. Hence, hot-money outflows are unlikely to overwhelm the renminbi. But the mainland's property bubble is bursting. The bubble has exaggerated growth and grossly distorted money allocation. Normalisation will be protracted, possibly lasting through 2014, and the rebalancing may cut the real economic growth rate by half. Also, the bubble supported the vast grey income, possibly 10 per cent of GDP. When the bubble bursts, it will be impossible for the real economy to support the burden. If history is any guide, China is about to launch a vast anti-corruption campaign as a necessary component of the normalisation to ease the burden on the economy.

The West will be marked by political crisis next year. Its loss of competitiveness to emerging economies and an ageing population will cause living standards to drop. This need was postponed by the debt bubble for a decade. Even Europe and the US stabilise their financial systems for now, leaders will still need to deal with the reality of cutting living standards - and this is tricky politically.

In the US, the presidential election next year may turn out to be as tumultuous as the one in 1968. The Democrats will probably campaign for fairness; the Republicans for smaller government. The political positions of major interest groups are irreconcilable. While the US economy seems to be holding up for now, a crisis of confidence over the political fighting could set the economy back again.

The European elites seem to be consolidating behind Germany to save the euro through austerity. But selling the solution to their people may not be so easy. It is hard to imagine that such a big cut in living standards could be accomplished without upheaval.

The economic improvement since 2008 is largely a mirage, fuelled by unsustainable government assistance in the West and bubbles in the emerging economies. Both will unwind next year. The mirage will be unmasked. If you think 2008 was bad, fasten your seat belt for 2012. The world may not end, but your wallet will take a hit.



Andy Xie is an independent economist

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Posted in: BRIC

Usury and monetary policy

2011-10-17  / Andy Xie


Summary

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The bankruptcies of many private enterprises, especially in Wenzhou, are mostly due to speculation with borrowed money gone bad. It is totally wrong to characterize this phenomenon as monetary tightening squeezing SMEs. Normal businesses don't go bankrupt because they cannot borrow. Only money burning speculation needs to borrow constantly to stay afloat.

Loosening monetary policy now to ease the liquidity crunch for speculators would do enormous harms to the economy. Indeed, the excessive monetary expansion between 2008-10 squeezed real businesses through cost push and rewarded speculation through asset inflation. Another wave of excessive monetary expansion will magnify manifolds the speculation in China's economy by proving again that speculation, not honest business, is profitable. The ultimate crash will be much bigger.

High interest rate lending is turning into a ponzi game or 金融转销 in many tier II and III cities. The phenomenon seems quite widespread. Zhuanxiao is a constant threat to China's social stability. Financial zhuanxiao has disruptive power many times of the usual type. If not stamped out soon, it could cause widespread social instability next year.

China is facing manual labor and energy shortage. The ongoing economic slowdown is a good thing. Pushing growth would only worsen inflation. To achieve another wave of high growth, China must rebalance its economy away from manual labor and/or energy- intensive industries towards higher value added activities.


A good thing gone bad

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The underground lending has a long and productive history in China. It reflects that China's state-owned financial system couldn't meet all the market demand. Underground financing is a major force behind the export-led economic boom along the coast. The SMEs in PRD and YRD have benefited from the availability of financing through such channels. And they have been the main force in China's export boom.

Financing through informal channels is the main source of financing for SMEs throughout the world. Formal financial institutions just don't have the cost structure to service SMEs effectively. Hence, the government shouldn't stamp out informal financial channels because they sometimes create problems like now. Overall, informal financing contributes to the economy.

The nature of the underground financing in China has shifted in the last five years, away from real economic activities to property and financial speculation. The reason is obvious. Speculation has been profitable due to massive monetary expansion, while real businesses have been squeezed by weak global demand and rising costs.

Should we blame underground financing per se for creating the bubble? Not really. No financial institutions could go against the macro environment. Even the best managed banks rarely survive a loose monetary environment intact. Financial institutions are just not equipped to handle macro risks. The 2008 financial crisis and the current euro debt crisis demonstrate this point.

There is little doubt that China's banks have played a dominant role in turning monetary expansion into a massive property bubble. Underground lending has played a supporting role, often funding fake equity for qualifying for bank lending.


Macro tightening bridge loan?

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The lending rates in the underground financing market range between 20-100%. Hardly any business in the real economy has returns so high to afford such high interest rate. The borrowers of such high interest loans can only hope to repay the loans through asset appreciation.

For example, land owners have turned to high interest borrowing to hang onto their land holdings while the monetary tightening has limited the availability of bank loans. Many property developers view the tightening as temporary, like in 2008. Hence, they view high interest borrowing as a bridge loan for getting through the tightening window. When the tightening ends soon, as they expect, the land price would surge far more than the interest they would have to pay.

Extrapolating from the most recent past is always dangerous. The 2008 global crisis changed the Chinese government's mind from fighting inflation to supporting growth. The decision doesn't look so smart today. China's labor shortage was already obvious then. The stimulus has worsened inflation problem enormously, while the monetary growth, due to shortage of opportunities in the real economy, has primarily gone into property market. China is facing tremendous difficulties today because of the unwise stimulus policy then.

It would be extremely unwise to expect the government to loosen up and stimulate growth now. If so, it would be a bigger mistake than the previous stimulus, because the economy will experience even more excesses. Another stimulus package like the one in 2008 could trigger hyper inflation and hyper speculation in China. The consequence wouldn't be just another burst. It could lead wholesale political changes. It is difficult to imagine that the central government would take so much risk with little upside and so much downside.

Property developers that depend on high interest loans are making a huge mistake. They should resort to price cutting to increase sales rather than selling little at high price while depending on high interest loans for liquidity. The later they wake up, the deeper price cuts they have to do eventually. Of course, when the market clearing prices are 50% less than the recent peak, many developers would go under.

It is necessary for many, if not most developers, to go under. Unless it happens, the tightening wouldn't have worked. Otherwise, it would be business as usual, i.e., the economy depends on bubble making for growth.


High interest lending may have turned into a ponzi game

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While the demand from property market started the high interest lending boom, it seems to have turned into a Ponzi game or financial zhuanxiao lately. Because real interest rate is too low, stock and property markets are depressed, and the real economic activities have low profitability, savers have become credulous about opportunities like high interest lending. They worry their bank deposits are depreciating in real terms. Also, 20-100% interest rate has the smell of 'get rich quick'. There are always numerous people who are suckers for that. So many want to believe its sustainability and dream how rich they would be in a few years.

There are no activities in the real economy that could bear such high interest rate. Financial speculation doesn't look so either. The property market is declining. The stock market is depressed. So where could the high interest lending go?

In the past two months, I have travelled along the coast and up the Yangzi River. High interest lending seems booming. Even in interior cities commercials are everywhere advertizing the business. There are so many people involved, it seems. As the end demand seems dubious, I have to conclude that this business is now a Ponzi game, relying on new money to pay off the old money. I haven't seen anything before. It is quite scary.

A Ponzi game is a redistribution game. Unfortunately, the last ones to hold the bag are often the most vulnerable and credulous, like low income group and retirees, in the society. When they lose everything, they will turn on the government. There are plenty of examples from the past. The central government should deal with it now to control the risk. As this involves criminality, the central government should mobilize security apparatuses to deal with this.

China experiences pyramid schemes or chuanxiao (传销) frequently. The security apparatuses deal with it on a daily basis. This is the first time that chunaxiao has become a financial phenomenon. If not checked, it could lead to a national calamity.


Monetary growth is not too tight

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The current level of monetary growth is more than adequate for China's economy under normal circumstances. M2 grew by 13.5% in August from last year. It is much lower than 20% in recent years, but still considerably higher than China's potential growth rate. China's financial depth is already very high with total assets of deposit taking corporations above 2.3 times 2011 GDP. Hence, monetary growth above the potential growth rate of the economy will become inflation.

Also, the current M2 growth rate may be underestimating the true magnitude of monetary growth. Commercial banks have been active in off balance sheet activities in response to tighter lending restrictions. The trust sector has been booming. The underground high interest rate lending market has been surging. These activities are not fully reflected in the monetary statistics. If these activities are taken into account, I suspect that the apple-to-apple comparison would give us 16% broad money growth rate.


Inflation is still the challenge

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Inflation remains China's main challenge. The massive growth in money supply over the past decade is still turning into inflation. The level of monetary growth is not low enough to subtract from it. China isn't really pushing inflation back into the bottle yet.

The structural changes have made China's economy much more inflation prone. Three decades of one-child policy is cutting today's labor supply. China's manual labor supply may not be growing at all. Factory and construction drive China's growth. Unless the growth rate slows down significantly, labor shortage will wosen, increasing inflation as a result.

Energy shortage is another factor driving inflation. The official statistics may show China's coal consumption at 3.6 billion tons and, including production above government approved quotas, possibly at 4 in 2011. Double digit growth rate of coal consumption on such a large base is unsustainable. The transportation system won't be able to handle that. Also, the production levels in viable production locations may be peaking. China's growth model is highly energy-intensive. If the growth rate of coal consumption remains at double digit rate on such a large base, energy prices will continue to inflate.

While monthly inflation data may fluctuate and sometimes show cooling inflation, the underlying forces are still for inflation. It would be wrong to shift macro policy priority away from price stability.


Slowdown has little downside

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Unlike a decade ago, economic slowdown today has little downside. The shortage of manual labor is still worsening. A slowdown will hardly cause an employment problem. The SMEs that are going bankrupt may lead to layoffs. But, the affected workers can find jobs quickly elsewhere.

There is an employment problem for six million college graduates per annum. The wage gap between those with and without college degree is virtually not existent, at least at entry level. A large number of college graduates, unable to find satisfying white-collar jobs, are staying home. Considering how much they have cost their parents in going through four years of college, the current situation is not acceptable. It is a destabilizing force.

However, the answer to this problem isn't pushing growth. Construction and factory drive growth under the current model. It needs blue collar workers. The answer to the insufficient employment of college graduates lies in reorienting the growth model towards higher value added activities.


The way forward is rebalancing

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China's next growth cycle must be less labor and energy-intensive. Otherwise, inflation will surge to derail any growth push. China must reform its economy and give more power to market and private sector. The dominance of the state-owned enterprises inevitably leads to big project-led growth, which is too inflationary.

The starting point of rebalancing China's economy is to limit the revenues of the government sector. The fiscal revenue and SoE profit may reach 30% of GDP in 2011. The SoEs also spend considerable more than their profits on capital expenditure. Local governments also increase their net borrowings to increase spending. If these factors are taken into account, the government state may spend half of the money in the economy.

China's private enterprises and household sector have been marginalized in the past decade. China's consumption is a small share of GDP because the household sector doesn't have the cash flow to support higher level of consumption. Unless the government sector takes less money out of the economy and leaves more for the household sector, big project construction will continue to dominate the economy.

Also, the current economic structure gives profitable opportunities mostly to SoEs. Private companies are left with low margin businesses like light manufacturing and retailing. Only the property sector has delivered good returns mostly through land inflation. This is why so many private companies have moved into property development. As the property bubble deflates, the private sector will become much smaller.

The rebalancing of China's economy begins and ends with limiting the size of the state sector. Anything else is just diverting attention. To limit the government size, the first step should be to cut taxes. For example, the top personal income tax rate should be cut to 25% from 45%, and the VAT should be cut to 12% from 17%.

Through rebalancing, China's economy will shift to higher value added growth. Only then could China revive high growth rate without sparking inflation.


Deflating property bubble is the answer to tight liquidity

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The current liquidity problem, as reflected in bank lending restrictions and high interest rate in the underground financing market, is due to excessive demand, not supply too low. As argued above, the current monetary growth is more than sufficient under normal circumstances. The excessive demand comes primarily from the property sector. The properties under development may exceed 50% of GDP in value at last year's price.

The way out of the current liquidity problem is for property market to deflate. When the price comes down, the property market needs less liquidity.

Increasing money supply isn't the answer to the current liquidity problem. It will encourage speculation and exacerbate inflation, ultimately leading to an economic collapse.

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Posted in: monetary policy

Start the international board now

A country becomes a financial center because it has succeeded in becoming the trade center.

Germany's plight today should remind everyone that, when the financial center and the source of money are disconnected, bad things happen to whoever has the money.

Even though Germany amassed the biggest trade surplus in the past decade, its financial system was woefully underdeveloped and relied on London bankers to recycle its money into other countries. With the benefit of hindsight, it would be natural that the London bankers wanted to screw Germany, because they were paid to do so.

In a decade or two, Germany may become a poor country. When people look back then, they would conclude that its decline was due to the combination of a hyper competitive manufacturing sector and a woefully inadequate financial sector.

China's total property value, including work-in-progress and land banks, is already 5 times GDP. The bubble is about 100% above the sustainable level. When the bubble is big enough, China will run trade deficit rather than surplus. But, it is artificial. When the bubble bursts, the currency gets devalued, the property value drops to 2.5 times GDP or less. It would lead to a huge trade surplus of above 10% of GDP. But, the world won't tolerate that. The resulting protectionism would shut down the global economy for everyone.

The only good way out is for China to develop a global financial center that would allocate China's trade surplus effectively and efficiently to boost global economic growth. If China can allocate its surplus capital into the global economy efficiently, it can continue to earn surpluses.

To develop a financial center, a country must have the rule of law, the strong protection for private property, and transparency. China lacks all three. It will take a long time to develop them. But, a downpayment in the form of an international board at China's Stock Exchange could help to jump-start the process.

2011-09-12  / Andy Xie


Summary

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China must effectively internationalize its surplus capital for the global economy and its own to function normally. Otherwise, the global economy would suffer bubbles and financial crisis again and again. It may lead to the rise of protectionism that would destroy the global economy.

Irresponsible borrowing by Southern European governments and Anglo-Saxon households and money hoarding by Germany, oil exporters, and East Asian manufacturing exporters planted the seeds for the current crisis. China's share among surplus countries is rising. If China keeps recycling its surplus into government bonds, the resulting distortion would hurt itself and others. The country could become the focal point in the international blame game.

Globalizing China's surplus labor has led to its economy rising over twentyfold in nominal dollar value and becoming the largest trading economy in just two decades. Globalizing the country's surplus capital would make China the largest economy in the world and the biggest financial center in another two. This action is in China and the world's best interest.

The first step in internationalizing China's surplus savings should be to start the international board of the country's stock market. It is a small downpayment but may produce a large effect on the global economy through inspiring multinational companies to expand production. As the global economy double-dips, this action would be China's contribution to supporting the global economy.

As the second largest economy, the largest trading nation with the largest trade surplus, China must take significant responsibility for the healthy functioning of the global economy. Its foreign assets of $4 trillion are overwhelming in government bonds. This lopsided allocation has created huge distortion in the relative price between bonds and stocks. This distortion is a destabilizing factor for the global economy. It should be remedied as soon as possible.



From labor surplus to capital surplus

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Globalizing China's surplus labor is the single most important factor in China's economic development over the past two decades. The surplus depressed China's labor cost to less than 5% of that in the developed economies two decades ago. But, China's labor quality was several times higher than the relative wage suggested. Opening up the country to FDI and building supporting infrastructure led to rapid export growth and industrialization. China has become so successful that it is now the largest trading nation and the second largest economy in the world.

The labor surplus is clearly gone. Indeed, the shortage of blue-collar labor is plaguing many industries. The wage for blue collar labor is rising at a double digit rate. In some industries like mining, it has doubled in the past three years. The wage level, however, is still one tenth of that in the developed economies. Cost isn't a barrier to China's industrialization yet. Upgrading is the right response to the labor shortage. In particular China must compete against Germany and Japan in the coming decade.

As China's surplus labor becomes fully integrated into the global economy, the country has migrated from capital shortage to surplus. China's trade surplus is at $200-400 per capita. This level is relatively low by East Asian standard. It could rise by five times or more. But, because China is so much bigger than other East Asian countries, if its trade surplus per capital reaches that level, the aggregate surplus would be huge relative to the global economy.

For example, if China's trade surplus reaches $1,000 per capita, a modest amount by East Asia standard, the total would reach $1.4 trillion, bigger than all the fund raisings in the stock market in the whole world. How this amount of money is deployed will hugely affect the global economy.



From trade to finance

----------------------------

A country becomes a financial center because it has succeeded in becoming the trade center. London became the global financial center because the UK had overtaken other countries to be the largest in trading goods and services. The financial center moved to New York because the US replaced the UK as the top player in international trade. China is now the largest trading nation in the world. By 2020 China could dwarf anyone else in international trade, becoming twice as largest as the second largest. Could and should China become the global financial center? The answer to both is yes, I believe. If China doesn't take actions to do so, it would hurt itself and the global economy.

Finance followed trade because most of financial services were related to trade. And, profits were mostly derived from trade too. One could see the linkage by visiting Pingyao, the little town in Shanxi that dominated China's finance in the 19th century. It is a small and poor place bordering Mongolia. In the 19th century, the rise of the Russian Empire created a big market and a safe pathway for selling Chinese goods to it. The people in Pingyao had the advantage of bordering both worlds and could arbitrage the price difference between China and Russia. The profits from the trade and the need for trade finance turned Pingyao into a financial center. It later declined because the seabourn trade replaced the costly overland trade. China's financial center also migrated to Shanghai.

This story repeats on a large scale in the whole world. The United States didn't plot to supplant the UK to become the international financial center. It happened because the US replaced the UK as the biggest industrial power and trading nation. Finance just followed. The importance of the Wall Street is a consequence of the US's industrial success.

The most important economic development in the 21st century is China becoming the largest industrial nation. I have anticipated this for a long time. This is a consequence of globalization and China's cultural characteristics. The government has adopted supportive policies, i.e., not standing in the way. No other country is yet on the horizon to stop China's industrialization.

By one measurement-the industrial energy consumption China is already the biggest industrial economy in the world. The dollar value isn't there yet because Chinese goods are still cheap. China could raise prices to absorb the rising labor cost in this decade and still grow exports at above 10% per annum. By 2020 China could become twice as big as Germany in international trade.

The largest trading nation should become the global financial center. Some may argue that was in the past. Information technology has made where asset trading occurs irrelevant. Germany's plight today should remind everyone that, when the financial center and the source of money are disconnected, bad things happen to whoever has the money. Even though Germany amassed the biggest trade surplus in the past decade, its financial system was woefully underdeveloped and relied on London bankers to recycle its money into other countries. With the benefit of hindsight, it would be natural that the London bankers wanted to screw Germany, because they were paid to do so.

In a decade or two, Germany may become a poor country. When people look back then, they would conclude that its decline was due to the combination of a hyper competitive manufacturing sector and a woefully inadequate financial sector.



Foreign exchange reserves cannot substitute a financial center

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China has avoided Germany's fate by sending its surplus capital into government bonds, especially the US treasuries. This 'all eggs-in-one basket' strategy has worked so far. The government bonds of the major economies have held up in value, even though their economies are in shambles. But, government bonds cannot sustain value if the underlying economies are in constant crisis. At some point, either the government debt level is too high or its tax revenue is too low. Their central banks would be forced to bail out their governments by printing money. China would get its money back, but in severely depreciated currencies. Unless China changes its strategy, it cannot avoid Germany's fate.

China's net foreign assets have risen by twice as fast as its trade surplus. The main reason is capital inflow, especially from overseas Chinese, to avoid a depreciating dollar. The Chinese government is essentially taking on the currency risk for the whole overseas Chinese community. If China loses its foreign exchane reserves, the government may become bankrupt, and the country's financial foundation is gone.

In addition to asset safety, China's 'all eggs-in-one basket strategy' is creating distortion in the global economy. The sharp divergence between stock and bond prices is mostly due to the concentration of money among institutions that just buy government bonds. China is part of the picture. The oil export countries have even more money in the market. The low price of stocks discourages companies to invest and hire workers. While this isn't the only factor, it is a significant one in causing the instability in the global economy.

If a country makes a lot of money, it must be responsible for allocating the money effectively and efficiently to help the global economy. Otherwise, it would be worse off for everyone. In the past decade, China is just one player among several that have amassed money but done a poor job in allocating it. In the next decade, China would dwarf anyone else in amassing money. But, if China couldn't allocate the money effectively, the whole world would blame China for their ills.



China must become the biggest global financial center

------------------------------------------------------------------------

If China upgrades its industries successfully in response to its rising labor cost, as Japan did in the 1970s and Korea and Taiwan did in the 1990s, the country may increase its trade surplus to $1 trillion. The per capita level would still be a modest $715 by East Asia standard. The total, however, is above the total fund raisings in all the stock markets in the world. Unless the money is deployed efficiently, i.e., improving rather than impeding global growth, the global backlash would impede China's development, causing disasters for everyone.

An alternative to the trade surplus is running a massive asset bubble to exaggerate domestic demand. Japan did that in the 1980s. China is doing quite a bit now. Without the domestic asset bubble, China's trade surplus would be twice as big, I believe. Running a bubble just delays the inevitable and creates a financial crisis as the price. China's total property value, including work-in-progress and land banks, is already 5 times GDP. The bubble is about 100% above the sustainable level. The bubble can be bigger, twice as big, if the government tolerates it. When the bubble is big enough, the country will run trade deficit rather than surplus. But, it is artificial. When the bubble bursts, the currency gets devalued, the property value drops to 2.5 times GDP or less. It would lead to a huge trade surplus of above 10% of GDP. But, the world won't tolerate that. The resulting protectionism would shut down the global economy for everyone.

The only good way out is for China to develop a global financial center that would allocate China's trade surplus effectively and efficiently to boost global economic growth. If China can allocate its surplus capital into the global economy efficiently, it can continue to earn surpluses.



The international board is a downpayment

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China has a highly developed manufacturing sector but a backward financial sector. The later is dominated by state ownership and caged by a closed capital account and a fixed exchange rate. The mismatch between the two is the source of so many problems in China. The pressing issue is that the global economy cannot wait for China to go about its own pace. Unless China could allocate its surplus capital effectively and efficiently into the global economy soon, a global backlash against China's development is likely to emerge.

To develop a financial center, a country must have the rule of law, the strong protection for private property, and transparency. China lacks all three. It will take a long time to develop them. But, a downpayment in the form of an international board at China's Stock Exchange could help to jump-start the process.

The multinational companies need to expand in emerging economies. Their home countries don't have money surplus anymore. It makes sense for them to raise money in emerging economies for investments in them. While the market may start small, it would boost confidence among MNC's for future financing. They may become more willing to invest.

China should lay down the rules for the global top 500 hundred companies all to list in China. It should be a transparent process that won't require the aspiring companies to lobby the government individually. If the process is too tightly controlled, it won't have the impact on business confidence.

Many argue that the international board will weigh down the A-share market. This is just a petty excuse. The A-share market is already very low, because it is concerned about the growth at home and abroad. The international board will help the global economy. It would be good for China's economy too. The A-share market may rally on improving confidence.

To boost demand for stocks, the government could introduce new sources of demand. A 401K like retirement plan, for example, could boost stock demand greatly, possibly by over Rmb100 billion per annum. That would be sufficient to offset the fund raisings in the international board. Raising the stock investment ratio for insurance companies would be another source of demand. In short, there are many ways to increase demand to offset the fund needs of the international board. China runs a large trade surplus. Liquidity shouldn't be a problem. Appropriate policy adjustments can keep the liquidity for stock market.

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Posted in: China,finance,stock market

The global crisis lingers

If you hear actions to increase the capital base for French and German banks, expect Greek default soon.

When multinationals call East Asia home, they will invest enough to treat East Asian consumers like their western counterparts. The investment process will lift the salaries of the Asian workers to the western level. They then have the consumption power to make the investment pay off. This would be a gigantic project to build a new global economy.

2011-09-26 / Andy Xie


summary

------------

The global crisis has turned into a chronicle one. The eurozone's response to its recurring debt crisis is another bandaid that would ease the pain for the time being. So are the expected Fed's QE 3 and the Obama Administration's $447 billion fiscal stimulus proposal. The structural headwinds and debt hangover plague the global economy. Neither can be solved quickly.

The expectation that the eurozone debt crisis would be worse than the US's crisis is wrong. Eurozone's indebtedness and fiscal deficits are much lower than the US's. When the region's governments run out of resources to contain the crisis, they will allow the ECB to print money to ease the crisis. In short, the eurozone crisis lasts but doesn't explode like the US's subprime crisis.

The bandaid measures by the eurozone and the US may spark a rally in risk assets like stocks. Like the previous rallies, this one would be relatively short, possibly for three months. The recurring crisis will generate short cycles in asset markets.

The global economy is on a path of slow growth-1-2% in the developed world and 4-6% in the emerging world, while inflation would be 3-5% for the former and 5-10% for the later. This stagflation world may last for a decade.

Betting on inflation is likely the best investment approach in this decade. While gold is consolidating, its bull market isn't over. Energy and agriculture are similarly on bullish trends. Multinational companies that sell to consumers in emerging markets may do well too.



Greek tragedy

-------------------

'History always repeats itself twice: first time tragedy, second time farce', so said Karl Marx. What if it repeats the third time? It could only be described as a Greek tragedy.

The expectation of an imminent Greek default set off another round of turmoil in the world's financial markets. The fear was based on its contagion through the eurozone banking system. The eurozone banks, especially French and German ones, are loaded with Greek bonds. The fear manifests through (1) the banks' unwillingness to lend to each other and (2) their share prices plummeting. Their collasping share prices reminded investors of what occurred before the Lehman crash, which sent stocks falling everywhere.

The irony is that this is mainly about accounting. The Greek bond prices already predict a Greek default almost for sure. But, the accounting rules allow the banks not to account for the losses until Greece actually declares default. Hence, they don't have to raise capital yet, even though they may already be bankrupt. The dance around Greece's debt crisis by other European countries is really about this accounting fiction.

Greece is in a vicious cycle. As it cuts spending to decrease fiscal deficit, the economy shrinks, and the tax revenue falls even more. Hence, it cannot meet the deficit target spelled out in the second EU assistance package. The EU has postponed its decision on the next installment of €8 billion from the second aid package to next month. The money is necessary for Greece to avoid default. It is unlikely that Greece will be able to meet that. If not, the EU has to decide if to go easier on Greece or let it go.

The market is expecting default. Greece's default is inevitable. The debt hole is just too deep for Greece to climb out. I'm not sure that it would be next month. The European banks may not be ready for it yet. French and German governments have to take actions to strengthen their banks first. Otherwise, the resulting chaos would be too damaging for Europe. If you hear actions to increase the capital base for French and German banks, expect Greek default soon.



The lesson on debt trap

--------------------------------

A financial crisis results from a mistake by the financial markets before. In the case of Europe the bond market gave Germany's interest rate to Southern European economies in anticipation of and after the establishment of euro. It led to excessive demand fueled by credit in the later and supercharged Germany's exports. The circle was completed by recycling Germany's trade surpluses into the cash-short Southern European economies through London-centered financial markets. It is one more piece of evidence that today's financial markets, despite ample liquidity and 24 hour trading cycle, are highly inefficient and can cause calamity on a global scale and frequently.

The same markets are demanding clarity on how the Southern European economies could repay their mountains of debts. As they haven't responded fast enough to satisfy the markets, the interest rates on their bonds have surged. At a high enough interest rate, any debtor is bankrupt. The Southern European economies have been travelling down this path of self fulfilling bankruptcy.

For example, Italy's national debt is 120% of GDP. When interest rate is 3%, it seems bearable, and the market is not worried and willing to roll over the principal. When the interest rate is 6%, the interest burden becomes unbearable, and the market isn't willing to roll over the principal anymore. The vicious cycle could lead to bankruptcy quickly.

This is a lesson for any country that depends too much on financial markets. The money may come easy. But, when you need it most, they turn on you. The cost could be catastrophic. The persistent high interest rate could decapitalize an economy like Italy's and turn it into a developing country.

Chinese local governments have been travelling down the same path in the past few years. They have borrowed heavily on the expectation that ever rising land price would allow them to pay off the debts. Such expectation is alive despite the collapsing property markets around the world.

Most local governments in China may have trouble paying off their debts. Urbanization has economies of scale. Only a small number of cities are in a virtuous cycle of growing population, rising employment, and more financing for infrastructure investment. Many cities that are investing heavily and hoping to attract population and employment will be disappointed.



Structural headwinds

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The mistake by the financial markets fueled the debt bubble in the developed world. It was tolerated because the developed economies were losing competitiveness against the developing world. The bubble conveniently filled an employment shortfall due to globalization. In a crisis our attention is focused on the past like the accumulated debt load. A more challenging issue is how the underlying structural problems could be resolved. Otherwise, the crisis will never end.

Europe and the United State face the same problem. Globalization is equalizing wages for similar jobs. In the past, where one was born would mostly decide his or her living standard. Information revolution and globalization now allow global companies to hire people from everywhere to do work for everywhere too. For the world as a whole this increases efficiency, i.e., the whole pie becomes bigger. The biggest fallout is how it affects the workers in the developed world who compete against their counterparts in the emerging world.

Southern European economies depended on labor intensive industries in the division of labor within Europe. It was all fine until globalization came along. The debt bubble allowed them to maintain living standard through debt financed bubble activities to turn debt into income. Greece's bubble was in government generated employment financed by government issued bonds. Spain's property bubble turned foreign liquidity into its labor income.

The uncertainty due to Europe's debt crisis has been with us for a year and a half and seems destined to last for a long time to come. When France and Germany decide to recapitalize their banks, the uncertainty will diminish for the time being. But, the need for lasting fiscal austerity will trigger political uncertainties for years to come, negatively affecting the global economy and financial markets.

Rising productivity in emerging economies and an aging population at home have sapped Europe's growth potential. It needs to be frugal to balance its books, i.e., Europeans must accept a significant reduction in living standard. The reduction needs to come from less welfare benefits, higher taxes, or rising retirement age. Germany has done that in the past decade. Other countries must follow. This seems extremely difficult to achieve. The populaces in many eurzone countries refuse to accept cutbacks and put pressure on their governments to find another way out. The alternative is more debt, if the market agrees. Otherwise, more crises.

The United States is similar to Europe. Part of its economy is like Southern Europe's. Its high unemployment rate reflects more the globalization reality than insufficient demand at home. The stimulus attempt by the Obama Administration won't solve the problem.

Sluggish growth and high unemployment rate are the twin phenomena to accompany the developed economies in this decade. Even Germany may not escape this fate. Austerity rather than stimulus is likely the policy direction for the developed economies.

The economic difficulties that the developed economies face in this decade may lead to social instability. What occurred in London could spread to other major western cities in this decade. It will make their policy response to fiscal deficits difficult. This is why the current crisis will last for a long time to come.



Only emerging economies can lead this world out of this crisis

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The world is still expecting the global economy to recover like before. It won't happen. If the global economy is to have another up cycle, it must be led by emerging economies. But, they have been growing on exports before. Unless they change their growth model, the global economy will remain sluggish.

The developed economies account for 70% of the global economy and the emerging economies 30% in current exchange rates. In purchasing power parity the two are about the same size. The export model for the emerging economies doesn't work like before because the emerging economies are so much bigger than before.

Emerging economies must shift from export to consumption-led for the global economy to regain momentum. But, the income level in the emerging economies is still too low to shift to the consumption model. One shortcut is to lift the income level quickly through attracting multinationals to invest massively. Multinational corporations have become unsettled in Europe and the US by the rising political risk and sluggish demand. They are incentivized to find a new home. East Asia, China in particular, is in a position to become the new home for multinationals.

Germany, East Asia, and oil exporters run large trade surpluses. I suspect that Germany's surplus will dwindle, as the European debt crisis saps the demand from its major trading partners. Oil export countries don't have the sophisticated economies to make multinationals root there. Only East Asia has the labor force, growth potential, and capital surplus to attract multinationals.

When multinationals call East Asia home, they will invest enough to treat East Asian consumers like their western counterparts. The investment process will lift the salaries of the Asian workers to the western level. They then have the consumption power to make the investment pay off. This would be a gigantic project to build a new global economy.

China must play a leading role in this process. As the second largest economy and the largest trading nation in the world, it has the ability and responsibility to do so. As I wrote in this page before, China must recycle its trade surplus into the global economy in the right way for it to function well. Attracting MNCs to China's capital market is a first and necessary step for the global economy to recover. It is in China's interest to take this critical step towards a new global economy.

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Posted in: global crisis

2012: Beyond leadership crisis

Steve Jobs is dead. Tim Geithner is still the US treasury secretary. That pretty much summarizes the affairs of the world.


2011-10-10  / Andy Xie


Steve Jobs represents the best of capitalism. He created, contributed, and was rewarded. For one generation, Apple Macintosh was the first IT device that was not only functional but also beautiful, a pleasure to use. His genius was to aggregate all the existing technologies to invent products that people didn't know they needed but couldn't live without after seeing them.

Steve Jobs is an exception in capitalism rather than the norm. Most corporate leaders have climbed to the top through politicking and showmanship. I had my first encounters with America's corporate titans while doing summer jobs. They looked impressive, like Hollywood stars, but were quite ignorant, dependent on sycophants, though ruthless in hanging onto power.

Capitalism may be the best system among all the possible ones. It is certainly not the most efficient or fair in any sense of the word. Adam Smith got that wrong. Scientists, engineers, architects, designers, etc. who contribute most to productivity are rarely rewarded. The just announced Nobel Prize winners remind us of that reality. Their discoveries have or will change the world. Their lifelong compensation, including the prize money, wouldn't be more than that for an average employee on Wall Street.

But, the alternatives to capitalism are much worse. Market competition eventually exposes incompetence, though it may take twenty years. It took the Soviet System seventy years. The capitalist system is more efficient in that regard.

Instead of rewarding most to the ones who contribute most, a capitalist system has a gambling den character. When you ask a lot of people to flip a coin, there is one very very lucky guy who would come out heads up every time. The capitalist system will give everything to him or her. Of course, what follows is either revolution or some peaceful government-orchestrated redistribution. The West picked the later after the World War II. It's called the Welfare State. And it kept peace for half a century.

Capitalism is in crisis at both ends-market and state. The gambling aspect of the system has been magnified by the modern central bankers like Greenspan. The distribution has not been random and more like a setup. As the system collapsed in the past three years, the state has bailed out the ones who gambled with other people's money. They have kept their money but lost other people's money and some. Wall Street CEOs were paid hundreds of millions for bringing down their banks. Geither gets to keep his job after ruining Obama's presidency. That's the reality of today's corrupted capitalism.

The welfare state itself is suffering from too many who receive and too few who contribute. The resulting deficit promises to bankrupt most western countries. We have met nice Greeks (you may not believe it). But, watching the pretests in Athens, Greeks seem like a determined bunch of parasites. If Wall Street bankers are paid millions of dollars for ruining the world, why shouldn't the Greeks get their €70 thousand per annum for occasionally sitting in a government office？

Greece may be an extreme example. But that sense of entitlement has surged in the past two decades across the western world. That force is causing fiscal deficits and, eventually national bankruptcies.

While capitalism is burning on a stick, the world's leaders are too weak to act decisively. Obama bailed out the establishment because he was weak. Angela Merkel couldn't make up her mind because she is weak. Of course, weak leaders are there because the system tends to produce weak leaders.

The US congressional maneuvers look like kindergarten food fights while the country is in deep economic and social crises. They are who they are. They won't change. The system has elevated them there.

Looking east, a gigantic farce is going on in Russia. Medvedeve and Putin have decided to switch jobs. Just like that, Putin is becoming the president of Russia again. Russia looks like a third world banana republic. Well, Russia is a third world banana republic. A lot of people in China worship Putin as a strongman. All his power comes from using the oil money to buy the hearts of Siberian peasants. Everything else is just a show. For that, he should thank Chinese demand for keeping up the oil price.

I'm quite positive about the stock market in the fourth quarter. The weak leaders in the world will provide predictable responses to the market turmoils. They will throw a few bones to calm the sentiment.

You can always count on Bernanke to do something when the market is down. He chickened out last month in launching a more radical QE 3, because Rick Perry, the Republican presidential contender, was surging in popularity and threatened Bernanke something pretty nasty, like dragging him to Texas, if he launched QE 3. Now, Perry is faltering. Mitt Romney, the current top dog in the Republican field, is an ex PE guy. Bernanke will be boldened to do something soon.

If European banks go under, the European leaders will act to prop them up. While they are weak, they will hurdle for cover when bullets really start to fly. Some sort of bank bailout package will come soon in Europe.

A new Fed stimulus and a European bank recapitalization package will give hope to the market, leading to a Q4 rally.

But, the problems-deficit, debt, and unemployment will continue to haunt the western world. When the existing system cannot solve the problems, revolution may come and create a new one. In the 1930s and 40s, the process was traumatic. Crazy men rose to the top amidst economic, political, and social turmoils in Italy, Germany, Japan, and Russia. They destroyed the old world. The new world did rise from the ashes. But, the process brought so much pain to the world.

Could the world avoid revolutions, or, when they come, could the revolutions be peaceful? We may get the answer in 2012.

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Posted in: capitalism

Money shortage ?

2011-07-04  / Andy Xie


Summary

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The so-called money shortage today reflects excessive money demand in the past, which was a result of very loose monetary policy. If the tightening policy is changed due to the pressure, the monetary condition would go back to the excessively loose state. As inflation is still unstable, i.e., product or service price could jump by 20-30% in one go, loosening monetary policy could trigger hyperinflation and social turmoils.

There is a need to switch the tightening policy towards raising interest rate from just increasing bank deposit reserve ratio. The later only shifts interest rate increase into the gray market, which disproportionately burdens the SME sector. The current tightening approach protects local governments and SoEs that were the main drivers of the rampant money demand. Spreading the adjustment pressure through interest rate policy will help China achieve soft landing.



Liquidity tightness is necessary for controlling inflation

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Monetary tightening inevitably leads to the feeling of money shortage in the short term. Otherwise, the tightening cannot be effective. The tightening is caused by inflation. If nobody spends less, i.e., nobody feels liquidity pressure, how could tightening achieve its goal?

How could the tight feeling go away? The prevailing view in China is that the central government needs to loosen up. This is very wrong. When the businesses that shouldn't borrow and spend leave the scene, the tight feeling goes away. When a fat person goes on a diet, the hungry feeling goes away when the stomach becomes smaller due to a period of controlled diet. If the hungry feeling goes away with eating more, how could dieting work?

China's M2 is growing at about 16%. It is still high relative to China's potential growth rate. When an economy has low financial depth, i.e., low ratio of financial asset value to GDP, M2 could grow much quicker than GDP. But, China's non-financial sector indebtedness to financial corporations was Rmb 72.7 trillion in April or 182% of 2010 GDP. Fitch estimates that China banking system has off balance assets equivalent to 25% of its total. China's gray financing market could be another 25%. It is fair to say that China's non-financial sector has debts above 200% of GDP. This level of indebtedness is unprecedented for a country with $5,000 per capita income. So China has no excuse to grow money faster because the country has low financial depth.

As China's population ages, the potential growth rate is likely to trend from the current 10% to 5% by 2020. If China's M2 grows at 10% in 2020, the inflation rate would be 5%. So the 16% today isn't low. It feels tight because lots of borrowers should exit. Unless it happens, China's inflation couldn't get under control.



Inflation isn't under control yet

----------------------------------------

China's inflation picture remains unstable. When the price of a product or service rises, it often goes up by 20 or 30%. This is rare in a normal inflationary environment in which prices tend to rise in line with CPI. The reason is because the stock of money supply is turning into inflation. China doubled its M2 in the past four years on top of an inflationary economy.

The government is taking some administrative measures to cool inflation. Cutting highway tolls, decreasing import tariffs, and jawboning businesses from raising prices could cool inflationary pressure for the time being. But, these measures only delay, not reverse the trend. If one interprets any cooling from such measures as victory over inflation and begins to loosen up again, a catastrophe will follow.

When someone has fever, ice could cool the temperature. If a doctor declares the patient cured, the patient's disease won't be treated. The problem will only get worse.

China isn't in a shape to loosen monetary policy whatsoever.

Some argue that China's inflation is only in food and energy, i.e., inflation is due to localized supply and demand balance, not loose monetary policy. This is very wrong. Services are inflating across the board. Even barber shops at street corners are raising prices. Rents are rising at double digit rate.

Lack of accurate data hampers the debate on inflation. If the statistics are not accurate, how could we have a meaningful debate? It would be catastrophic to declare victory by pointing at faulty data. Such a gesture will scare people into full panic.



The tightening mix should change

---------------------------------------------

The tightening so far relies on quantity restriction through increasing deposit reserve ratio. The interest rate hikes have been marginal. Hence, the demand for credit at the current interest rate exceeds supply. The imbalance is kept at bay through limiting credit access. The non-state sector has a tougher time to borrow than before. It leads to skyrocketing interest rates in the gray market. Hence, the non-state sector bears a disproportionate share of the tightening consequence.

The supply-demand imbalance has allowed the banks to raise lending rate too. The banks could increase lending rate by 30% above the policy rates. Further, through charging advisory fees and forced deposit back, banks can charge a lot more, even to the state owned enterprises.

China's tightening mix sacrifices savers. China's household sector has Rmb33 trillion in bank deposit. The current deposit rate is at least three percentage points too low, compared to the effective lending rate or inflation rate. The household sector is effectively subsidizing debtors, mostly SoEs and local governments, to the tune of over Rmb1 trillion per annum. It is equivalent to half of the total SoE profits in 2010.

The low interest rate policy isn't costless to the government. It keeps inflation expectation high and unstable. Chinese businesses used to be known for price competition. Increasing price at any excuse seems to become common. Of course, the low deposit rate keeps the household sector jittery, which makes the business strategy of increasing price more likely to succeed. It makes fighting inflation more difficult.

China should switch from relying on increasing deposit reserve ratio to increasing interest rate to contain inflation. The former is unfair to the private sector, making life difficult for SMEs and decreasing household wealth.



Don't exaggerate SME problem

------------------------------------------

Lately, many people have suddenly become very caring towards SMEs. The story goes like this: the tightening is causing SMEs to go bankrupt, which could cause an employment crisis. Neither description is correct. SMEs always have financing problems. The same people didn't pay much attention to them before. The purpose of the SME talk is to pressure the central government to loosen up, which would mostly channel money to local governments and property market, not SMEs.

The talk that SMEs are going bankrupt because of the tightening isn't logical at all. Like big companies, SMEs are supposed to be profitable. If they can't get new loans, they can stay with their current businesses and postpone expansion. If the SMEs are going bankrupt because of no new loans, it means they don't make money and stay in business by borrowing more and more. Does it make sense to keep such businesses alive? They will only become bigger problems down the road.

Unfortunately, some SMEs that are going under precisely fall into this category. In the past three years, many coastal private enterprises have switched from manufacturing to financial speculation. Their manufacturing assets have become financing vehicles. The borrowed money has gone into silver, copper, or stock market. The recent declines of such assets have caused havoc among such businesses. Should the government be responsible for bailing out financial speculators?

SME's always have difficulties in raising financing. Every country talks about helping SMEs. But, SMEs always face higher cost of capital. In the end, size does matter in risk. Ceteris paribus, a small company is riskier and must accept higher cost of capital.

As discussed above, China's method of tightening is causing more harm to the SME sector. By limiting credit supply to SoEs and local governments, SMEs face extremely high interest rate in the gray market. To help SMEs, the government should shift to increasing interest rate and opening credit access to anyone who is worthy.

Talking about employment crisis is just a scare tactic. China has manual labor shortage. The coastal export companies that have moved inland have found labor shortage there. China's demographics has changed. There is no endless supply of cheap labor anymore. Three decades of one-child policy is having a big impact on China's labor market. Even if some SMEs go bankrupt, China wouldn't face an employment crisis like a decade ago.

China does have an employment problem with college graduates. But, pushing growth under the existing model wouldn't solve it. The current growth model favors blue collar jobs, because construction and manufacturing always lead. To create more jobs for college graduates, China needs to become more consumption and service oriented. It requires structural reforms, not loose monetary policy.



Inflation is causing social instability

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China's nominal GDP doubled between 2006-2010. The living standard for most people appears to have not risen and has fallen for a considerable portion of the population. As a result mass protests, especially the violent ones, have increased. Pushing growth under the current economic model will only increase social instability.

The benefits from economic growth to the masses are jobs and purchasing power. China is facing manual labor shortage even in central and western provinces. With manual labor shortage, growth isn't important for the first part. It is negative for the second part, as inflation has been higher than wage increase for many people.

Inflation is very negative for household wealth. People save for a rainy day. But, when inflation erodes the value of one's deposit, one's insecurity rises immensely. When wages are not kept up with inflation either, violent social protests are quite likely.



The wrong kind of growth

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GDP growth has become a religion in China. It is automatically assumed to be good. The reality is different. The current growth model channels money to local governments through property market, fees and taxes. The local governments spend the money on projects that they think worthwhile. The money trickles down to the household sector through such projects. But, before the money reaches workers, most are taken away by the middlemen. This is why most people don't feel better off in the past four years even though the nominal GDP has doubled.

Property and food are two areas where people feel hit hardest. When property price is twenty times household annual income, life cannot be that good. One doesn't feel much better when the salary rises by 10 or 20%. It wouldn't make a big difference. The high property price has killed the hope of China's middle class, all for raising revenues for local governments. Could their projects be as important as 1.3 billion people's happiness?

The food safety crisis should be viewed in the context of government squeezing the household sector. The people at the bottom have seen their savings inflated away and income not rising in line with food price. The industry lowers the price to their income level through illegal means. From raw materials like pork and milk to processed foods like bottled water and restaurant meals, the crisis touches most people in the country. It is possibly the single biggest risk to China's social stability.

Inflation is a consequence of China's growth model. It has reached its limits. When money supply rises, it causes asset inflation, which worsens wealth and income inequality, and decreases living standard for most people. To loosen up monetary policy now, without inflation under control, it will cause more social turmoils.

The current growth model is resource intensive. Coal price has risen by over ten times in ten years, twice as fast as nominal GDP. The other resources like iron ore, etc., are similarly appraising twice as fast as China's nominal GDP. This headwind means that China is giving more and more of its growth to resource suppliers, leaving less and less for people. So if China keeps pushing the current growth model through loose monetary policy, more and more of the share from growth will go to other countries. Without changing the growth model, growth itself is just not beneficial to that many people in China anymore.

Now isn't the time to loosen up monetary policy. Instead, China should focus on changing the growth model to keep more of the growth benefit at home and distributed more evenly.

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Posted in: monetary policy

Japan's earthquake changes the world

Who are Japan's ruling class? Japan's bureaucracy rules the country. The bureaucrats are a remarkably stable class. At certain age they retire into senior positions in companies like Tokyo Electric that owns the nuclear plant in crisis, a practice called amakudari.

In theory, Japan's bureaucrats are the best and the brightest in the country. The senior people in the bureaucracy are almost all graduates of Tokyo University. Their superiority over the population was unquestioned for a long time and remains extremely high. However the record is not there to back up their prestige.

Japan's post-WW II recovery was often attributed to this ruling class, personified in the MITI's planning. The evidences are quite mixed on the MITI's record. The buildup of infrastructure was important to the country's development. But, anybody would know its importance. You don't need to go to Tokyo University to know the importance of infrastructure. In terms of industry planning the MITI-led bureaucracy probably didn't contribute at all. When Honda wanted to make cars in addition to motorcycles, MITI was against it. It led the country into heavy industries that still burden the country.

In the past two decades, the incompetence of this ruling class is for everyone to see. They led the country dow a massive bubble in the 1980s and couldn't get the country out of its subsequent malaise. Why wouldn't Japanese people overthrow such a ruling class? Japan needs a jasmine revolution.

2011-03-28 / Andy Xie

Summary

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Japan's 9.0 earthquake will increase inflationary pressure in the world through (1) BoJ's monetary expansion, (2) through disrupting the supply chains in automobile and electronics industries, and through increasing demand for fossil fuels. Japanese yen is likely to depreciate substantially this year, which would pressure other Asian currencies too.

In the long run, it discredits the nuclear power industry. No matter how well nuclear power plants are designed, unanticipated events and human errors always remain significant. When a nuclear power plant breaks down, the consequences can be catastrophic and lasting. Despite many government officials' reassurance, China should suspend the country's nuclear power expansion plan indefinitely and shut down the existing plants that are close to population centers.

The global economy will depend on fossil fuels indefinitely. The high prices will keep inflation high for years to come. Cutting consumption through changing lifestyles and development model is the only path forward. For China, in particular, the relentless pursuit of quantity expansion must be stopped immediately.



The power of nature deserves more respect

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Watching the 10 meter tsunami sweeping away houses and cars like matchboxes, one couldn't help but be awed by the power of nature. All the human technologies that science and technology have bought are so insignificant in comparison. At a moment like this one doubts the human confidence in the omnipotence of science and technology.

The catastrophe at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant reminds us all the folly of human being's overconfidence in man's ability to play with nuclear power. At a moment like this one would be willing to give up ten times the benefits from the plant's power generation for the last forty years to avoid this catastrophe.

The consequences for Japan from this disaster are massive and long lasting. Total casualties are likely to rise above 20,000 or 2 out of every ten thousand. The market talks about $200 billion in reconstruction cost and $500 bn in economic loss-reconstruction cost plus lost output. The chances are that the realized figures would be twice as high. More seriously, the fallout from the nuclear disaster will affect food and water supplies for years to come, causing anguish among the people that couldn't be estimated in economic value.



The failure of elitism

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In the aftermath of the disaster the world is impressed by the calm and orderliness of the Japanese population. The exodus of foreign population in Tokyo is in such a contrast with the calmness of local people. Even though the fear of shortage is palpable, Japanese people que up for everything.

In contrast with people's outstanding behavior, Japan's leadership has again demonstrated its incompetence. Japan is such a poorly led country. Much of the country's long decline could be blamed on this. When such incompetence is applied to a nuclear situation, the consequences could bring an end to a country.

Who are Japan's ruling class? The world observes frequent changes of Japan's government. It leaves an impression of instability. In reality, Japan's bureaucracy rules the country. The bureaucrats are a remarkably stable class. At certain age they retire into senior positions in companies like Tokyo Electric that owns the nuclear plant in crisis, a practice called amakudari.

In theory, Japan's bureaucrats are the best and the brightest in the country. The senior people in the bureaucracy are almost all graduates of Tokyo University. Their superiority over the population was unquestioned for a long time and remains extremely high. However the record is not there to back up their prestige.

Japan's post-WW II recovery was often attributed to this ruling class, personified in the MITI's planning. The evidences are quite mixed on the MITI's record. The buildup of infrastructure was important to the country's development. But, anybody would know its importance. You don't need to go to Tokyo University to know the importance of infrastructure. In terms of industry planning the MITI-led bureaucracy probably didn't contribute at all. When Honda wanted to make cars in addition to motorcycles, MITI was against it. It led the country into heavy industries that still burden the country.

In the past two decades, the incompetence of this ruling class is for everyone to see. They led the country dow a massive bubble in the 1980s and couldn't get the country out of its subsequent malaise. Why wouldn't Japanese people overthrow such a ruling class? Japan needs a jasmine revolution.



The bizarre currency market

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One bizarre phenomenon is yen's surge after the earthquake struck. The rationale is that Japanese companies would sell foreign assets to buy yen for reconstruction in the country. Hence, the yen would surge first. This is like buying up all the water near a house on fire. Such a strategy works if the financial market behaves like a monopoly as in ganging up. In the water example, if it is plentiful and worth nothing eventually, when the household owner buys it for fighting the fire, competition will bring the price down to nothing. In the yen case, as the market is so vast, how could it behave like a monopoly? The reason is that interest rates are so low that holding onto the long yen position costs little. Hence, the speculators all have a chance to wait until the last minute, forcing Japanese companies in urgent need of yen to buy.

G-7 intervened in the market to bring down yen's value. Many argue that it is anti market and wouldn't work in the long run. Such crazy arguments have a big audience in the world. The financial market has evolved into an entity for gaming the system for profit. The reason is the liquidity excess. So many people with so much money with little else to do gang up to create games for profiting from clueless or slow people. The origin of the system is central banks' penchant to stimulate by printing money. This practice has led to massive buildup of liquidity in the global financial system. When the system blew up in 2008, governments around the world bailed it out in the name of saving the economy.

When a country loses massive amount of wealth like in Japan's case, ceteris paribus, its currency goes down to reflect its diminished circumstance. The market's story on the short term dynamic wouldn't work out in a rational and competitive market. The Bank of Japan is pumping massive amount of money to support the economy. When the money finally trickles into the real economy, yen will depreciate due to rising supply. When one realizes that, it wouldn't make sense to hoard yen now, even though there would be temporary surge in yen demand in a few weeks due to the repatriation funds by the Japanese corporates. The Bank of Japan could lend yen to Japanese companies temporarily and allows them to swap foreign assets into yen gradually.

I wouldn't be surprised that dollar-yen rate reaches 100 this year. The economic loss is probably equal to Japan's foreign exchange reserves. The disruption to production could dent Japan's exports for months to come. At the same time Japan needs to import much more oil and gas to run the economy, as the nuclear power plants are shut down. The fundamentals for the yen have weakened considerably. The yen value should reflect the new reality.



Another inflation shock

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Japan's earthquake is the third inflation shock in 2011. Australia's floods would significantly affect grain supply. The jasmine revolutions in the Middle East have increased risk premium in oil price and may decrease production in the coming months. Japan's earthquake increases money supply and demand for oil and decreases manufacturing output.

The term 'shock' seems to suggest a transient nature. Could we wait its effect out? The story isn't as simple as that. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon in the long run. How quickly money becomes inflation depends on circumstances. Shocks accelerate the process of turning money into inflation.

The three shocks also delay monetary tightening and increase money supply in some cases. The BoJ will likely monetize a big chunk of the reconstruction cost. The government of Japan has 225% of GDP in debt. The market may not have the capacity to absorb a massive increase in JGB supply. The BoJ has to absorb quite a bit to stabilize the JGB market. If JGB interest rate rises, the interest rate cost on the national debt will bankrupt the government. Hence, the BoJ has to keep the JGB interest rate low through its purchases.

When the BoJ holds down JGB interest rate through its purchases, this action will manifest itself in the market through yen devaluation. The yen needs to devalue quickly and big and appreciates gradually afterwards. The JGB investors wouldn't have time to react when yen drops and, afterwards, have not incentive to sell as yen appreciation would compensate for the low interest rate.

Yen will devalue quickly and appreciate slowly in the future, in contrast to the past pattern of appreciating quickly and depreciating slowly. I wouldn't be surprised that the dollar-yen rate rises suddenly to 100 in the second half of 2011. The inflation shocks eventually change the market's expectation on the Fed's interest rate policy. When it happens, the dollar-yen rate may make such a move.



The death knell for nuclear power

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I have always been a big supporter for nuclear energy on environmental ground and economic efficiency. The developing countries account for 80% of the global population. If they consume as much fossil fuel as the developed countries through economic development, the earth may not be able to sustain it. The consequences are too grave to contemplate. Nuclear power is a lesser evil and, hence, worth trying. The Fukushima incident has changed my mind.

The Fukushima crisis reminds us that human error could bring the world to an end sooner than global warming. It is virtually impossible to eliminate human errors in running nuclear power plants. While many Chinese officials assure people that China's technology is safer, I couldn't stop thinking about unsafe foods, highest traffic accident rate in the world, and widespread quality problems in so many products in China. When I stretch the imagination to the country's nuclear power plants, it terrifies me.

China has suspended the expansion of the nuclear power industry. This is the right thing to do. Indeed, all the existing plants near population centers should be stopped as soon as possible.

The Fukushima incident will change other countries' nuclear programs. Germany has decided to stop renewing the operating life of the existing plants. India and the US are rethinking their expansion programs. The domestic resistance will surely slow or even cancel such programs.

Hence, the global economy will become much more dependent on fossil fuels in the coming years. That means accelerating environmental degradation and rising costs. The solution to the world is consuming less, not looking for alternatives. That means changing lifestyles and development models.

The US, for example, uses most of the energy for cooling and warming up houses and offices and for transportation. If the offices and houses are properly insulated and people all shift to hydride cars, the US's energy consumption can drop by one third or more. You may ask why the US hasn't done so. Behavior changes only if the law changes, culture changes, or price changes. Unfortunately, the first two are not happening. Only price high enough will do the job.

China's development is extremely energy intensive, because it's export and investment-led. China consumes more energy than the US but with 40% as much output. The US is already highly wasteful in energy use. It shows how China's economy is energy dependent. The model is not sustainable. Either the government changes its policy or the market will force the country to change. China's oil exports may exceed the US's in this decade. China will run trade deficits when oil price reaches $200/barrel. The resulting devaluation pressure may bring the country to a halt. It is better to change voluntarily rather than being forced by the market.



Supply chain interruptions

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Global division of labor has become very refined in the past two decades of globalization. Often a product will become components from many countries. Together with greater division of labor the just-in-time management system has become prevalent to save inventory cost. The two combined make the global economy vulnerable to a supply chain shock like Japan's earthquakes. General Motors has already shut down a truck production line for lack of components from Japan.

Japan specializes in many key components in electronics and automobiles. Iphone, for example, depends on Japan's supplies for many of its key components. The similar goes for many machinery products. Japan's supply chain disruption could lead to shortages of many popular products.

As nuclear power accounts for 30% of Japan's electricity supply, its shutdown could affect Japan's manufacturing for a long time to come. Further, radiation could complicate the situation. It is likely to cripple Japan's agro exports. We don't know how other countries will react to manufacturing products with unusually high but not dangerous levels of radiation.

Supply chain interruption is usually short lived. Its inflationary impact will go away quickly. Japan's case is different. The removal of 30% of its electricity supply can make the interruption lasting for many industries. Nuclear contamination worsens the situation. Its inflation impact will last.



Summary

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Japan's earthquake worsens the global inflation crisis. Through its impact on the BoJ's monetary policy it will lead to greater yen supply, yen depreciation, and higher global inflation.

The shutdown of Japan's nuclear power plants will increase Japan's demand for fossil fuels, increasing the pricing pressure in the market.

Japan's nuclear disaster will slow or cripple the development of nuclear power industry around the world. It increases fossil fuel prices in the long term. The only way out is to cut energy demand through changing lifestyles and economic development models.

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Posted in: Japan